Why is the EU afraid of Turkey?

Prime minister Recep Erdošan was in the headlines this week offering to mediate between the President elect Mr Obama and the Iranian administration. The offer shows the maturing horizons for Turkish diplomacy and a chance to put its unique links with Nato, the EU and Arab world to good use. Prime minister Erdošan, leader of Turkey's moderate Islamist party, has to date, managed to balance a staunchly defended secular constitution with an all encompassing reform program some of it Islamic in ambition.

The present government has so far avoided succumbing to a military coup, cementing its democratic tradition and improving its investment profile, whilst management of the economy has been adroit. Inflation has steadily come down as the government has eschewed populist spending measures and, with the aid of high interest rates, secured longer term monetary stability to Turkey for the first time in generations. Criticism of the government from Turkish liberals and western commentators over freedom of rights and humanitarian abuses remains and is an important issue for Turkey yet the current government has, by most measures, improved on a shabby record.

Why then have EU entry talks seemingly stalled over the past decade whilst talks with countries such as Bulgaria, Romania and the Ukraine have seemingly been fast-tracked. The EU, in theory, has a set of minimum economic, political and human rights standards that prospective entrants must meet or seen to be meeting in the near future. On this basis, compared with other entrants to the EU, it is hard not to ask why Turkish entry has progressed so slowly. France and Germany have been particularly vocal in voicing opposition to any eventual Turkish entry but, confusingly, cite EU criteria as their reason.

It is true that Turkey with its population of 75m would be a huge addition to the EU prompting fears that a flood of migrant workers would pour across Europe. Moreover the religious makeup of these migrants would be unpopular in most core European countries while xenophobia is far more mainstream in the ex-soviet bloc members and prospective members of the EU. Geographically EU borders would in one step stretch well beyond the European continent, across Asia Minor, meet the Iranian plateau on its eastern edges and Syria and The Lebanon on its southern flank. These border countries are regarded with intrepidation by the EU and would force members to deals with such countries on a neighbourly basis rather than from afar.

Turkey would, by virtue of its population and subsequent voting power, become a pivotal member of the EU. The dominant existing power combination to date has centred around the Franco-German alliance but a larger EU and an independently minded Turkey could easily upset this quasi duopoly. Indeed modern Turkey both in its self determined inception and evolution would be unlikely to be a EU rubber stamp.

The accusation most often levelled at the EU is that Turkey is being denied entry because its people are overwhelmingly Muslim. While it is true that Muslim Tunisia is being considered for membership and has made rapid progress in EU talks; Tunisia’s small relative population and close historic links with France (who will be counting on future Tunisian support) have probably helped to speed up the process.

Self interest and the preservation of incumbent power blocks are likely to be greater reason for stalled Turkish entry talks than the charge of racism, which although ill concealed from some quarters, remains muted on the whole.

However it is to the serious detriment of both the EU and Turkey if a timetable for Turkish entry could not be set. That the economic benefits to both would be vast is undeniable but pale in comparison to the political ramifications. The nascent Turkish democracy would receive a huge boost and the role the Turkish military plays in preserving the constitution could recede; progress towards human rights goals encouraged and monitored with an effective carrot and stick approach that has been used to date with lamentable ill faith on the EU’s part. The EU, in a coup akin to that of the election of Obama, prove its multicultural rhetoric and disavow allegations that it is a Christian club. Dominated as the EU is by the interests of France and Germany, Turkish entry could transform the current EU dynamic. The EU has remained a political and military “mouse” in the world and the inclusion of Turkey with its' huge army, could provide a catalyst for change that the EU needs to project itself on to the world stage. Turkey is alone in being a successful secular, yet muslim, democratic state. That it has troublesome neighbours, its' own smouldering Kurdish insurgency and human rights issues cannot be denied but these are the very issues that the EU can help Turkey solve.

Over the past decade EU accession talks has been the primary catalyst for positive change in Turkey and if talks were to reach an impasse there would be no doubt that the impetus for reform would falter.

Mike Robbins Kaž 26/04/10